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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward left guard to BAL 2 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +3.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model