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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 37

Houston Texans 17 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model