4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 39-M.Haack punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 21 for 13 yards (25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP