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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 20 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP