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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at HOU 48 for -6 yards (96-D.Autry).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.47 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model