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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 34

Houston Texans 23 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-C.Campbell), Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model