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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 66-D.Jacobs reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett up the middle to ARI 37 for 3 yards (97-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model