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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 15

Houston Texans 30 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model