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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 90

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Houston Texans 33

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 39-M.Haack punts 45 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-K.Crawford.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model