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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Houston Texans 40

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to HOU 45 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.80 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP