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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to NO 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model