Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(14:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 58 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 26 for 16 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.68 EP
58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model