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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NO 21 for 21 yards (1-A.Taylor; 4-K.McKinstry).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.26 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model