4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model