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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 35
Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 10
What Actually Happened
(11:00) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to NO 35 for no gain (98-J.Bullard).
The Three Options
GO
+1.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.38 EP
- 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.84 EP
KICK
+0.38 EP
- 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
- 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
