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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NO 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP