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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 32-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model