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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 6

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 39-J.Bates 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP