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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to DET 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-K.Raymond to DET 20 for 15 yards (22-B.Corum).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP