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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 71

Detroit Lions 17 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at DET 43 for 14 yards (1-E.Forbes).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model