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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.18 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model