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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 60

Detroit Lions 24 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model