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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to DET 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 34 for 8 yards (20-R.Rivers).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model