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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 41 – Detroit Lions 34

What Actually Happened

(:23) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP