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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to DET 27 for 10 yards (21-A.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model