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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love scrambles left end to DEN 42 for 1 yard (9-T.Hufanga).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.90 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model