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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 23 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model