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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 41

Denver Broncos 27 – Green Bay Packers 26

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.28 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model