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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 3 at the 45
Denver Broncos 34 – Green Bay Packers 26
What Actually Happened
(5:04) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims (56-E.Cooper).
The Three Options
GO
+0.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
- 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.55 EP
KICK
-0.07 EP
- 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT
-0.40 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
