4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 37

Denver Broncos 34 – Green Bay Packers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 46-A.Prentice up the middle to GB 38 for -1 yards (56-E.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.27 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP