Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 26 – Denver Broncos 34

(:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 0-M.Golden [15-N.Bonitto].

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.73 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -1.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP