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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 17-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP