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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP