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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 42

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 14-A.McNamara punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-I.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.64 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model