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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 23

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model