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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model