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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 58

New York Jets 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 38

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Metchie.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model