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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 61

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 15-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to WAS 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model