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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 21

Washington Commanders 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 16-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model