Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 83

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Giants 7

(1:54) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 28, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-J.Holland to NYG 25 for -3 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.31 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model