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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 64

Washington Commanders 22 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 8-J.Holland to NYG 19 for 10 yards (58-J.Magee).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP