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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 57

Washington Commanders 22 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 10-T.Way punts 44 yards to NYG 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP