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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 60

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(2:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 82-D.Bellinger to WAS 48 for 12 yards (58-J.Magee; 20-Q.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model