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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 16

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 29

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-P.Smith].

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model