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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 28

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 16-J.Moody 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model