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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 38-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 6, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP