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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 18-K.Cousins up the middle to ARI 26 for 2 yards (79-P.Mustipher; 50-C.Simon). ** Injury Update: ARI-42-D.Taylor-Demerson has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.99 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model