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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ARI 26 for 10 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). ARI-3-B.Baker was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model