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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 45-Z.Gonzalez 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.87 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model