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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Atlanta Falcons 19

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 38-C.Ryland 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model